By Dr. Murad Alazzany
The suicide car bomber which targeted Houthis in Al Jawf province left 25 Houthis killed and five wounded. The incident received global coverage in printed media and on television channels which worsened the already misrepresented image of Yemen.
Even more shocking news came up when the Houthis blamed the U.S. ambassador in Yemen for standing behind such attacks. The embassy denied the Houthi allegations completely. Last week, Al-Qaida announced its responsibility for the attack. The three way circle of Houthis, U.S. embassy and Al-Qaida is not resolved yet. Even though Al-Qaida announced its responsibility, Houthis still claim that the U.S. embassy was behind the attack one way or the other. According to Houthi representative, the U.S. embassy wants to cause a Sunni-Zaidi conflict in Yemen the same way it did in Iraq between the Sunnis and Shi’ites.
The Yemeni street received the news with mixed attitudes. Some analysts view the incident as a heinous crime, pointing a finger to Al-Qaida as the chief perpetrators, some consider it as the seeds of a rift in Yemen, blaming the government for the event, and others express their jubilation of the incident echoing Al-Houthis’ disdain at the loss of life.
The condemnation by the government was expected and diffident. They did not show any sympathy to the victims or seriousness in arresting the main people behind the attack.
The incident is considered a critical development in the Yemeni political and security context. It is a demoralizing signal of the commencement of a potentially bloody battle between the two traditional and ideological enemies, Al-Qaida and Shi’ites.
The two groups however, in spite of their ideological differences, still have in common the government of Yemen as an enemy. Both have been in simmering confrontation with the government since the beginning of the millennium.
Thus, the two groups share the goal of toppling the government, but they do so for different agendas.
The Al-Houthi group aims at restoring the Immamat kingdom they lost five decades ago, while Al-Qaida aims at threatening western interests and if possible to establish an Islamic state in Yemen. In spite of these ideological differences, they could never declare an open battle against each other. Thus, if Al-Qaida is confirmed behind the attack, then the question that poses itself is: why now?
Simply, the ideological differences between the two groups are much more that what they share in common. Their agendas can not co-exist side by side or to be contained, for where agendas differ, conflicts occur.
The Houthi celebration of Al-Ghadir Day is a show of power; by concentrating many followers in one place at one time, they simultaneously highlight their identity and challenge the government, in a bid to gain more supporters and to oppose those who are not in favour of their ideology, particularly, the tribal sheikhs in the area.
Thus, the attack by Al-Qaida was just a message to the Houthis that you cannot turn the country into a Shi’ite state while Al-Qaida exists. It is seemingly meant to prevent Houthi supporters from celebrating Al Ghadir festival in the province of Al Jawf.
Al-Ghadir is celebrated annually by Shiites to commemorate the day in which they claim Prophet Mohammed announced Ali bin Abi Taleb as his successor after his death. This theological fact is totally against that of Sunnis and particularly viewed by Al-Qaida as against Islam.
Interestingly, however, the Houthis have not accused Al-Qaida of perpetrating the attack. Rather, perhaps tactfully, they have highlighted the alleged enemies, America and Israel, and their foreign intelligence apparatus.
Accusing the US and Israeli intelligence as being responsible for the attack is a smart strategy by the Houthis to mark those behind the attack as agents for the enemy of the nation. Thus, when Al-Qaida declared its responsibility of the incident, it saved Houthis the effort to declare Al-Qaida as agents that serve the agenda of Israel and United States in the area.
From another perspective, Houthis cannot declare Al-Qaida behind the attack; at the end of the day they cannot afford charging into battle with an unseen enemy which has been in a severe confrontation with the most powerful country in the globe for almost a decade.
The Houthis are aware that a battle with Al-Qaida will not be run in the same way as the skirmishes they have had with the government. They know that Al-Qaida will attack them only in such festivals and in least expected occasions.
If the battle goes on, it will cause collateral damage across the country and will be an insufferable pain to all the people in the area. It will affect the country’s already deteriorating economy, social security and in the long run it’s already misrepresented image and reputation in the global media. It will sell Yemen as a chaotic and turbulent country.
If we keep watching passively, all will pay the high price handing a whole country on a silver platter over to a bunch of violent groups divided between the Houthis and Al-Qaida.