Advertise   Subscribe Contact Yemen Post
 
About Us   Our Mission Terms & Services
Yemen Post Newspaper Logo  
Editor Picture The first of a hundred steps is now complete. We salute those who helped the NDC become the road map for the future Yemen. Strides of success were made, but the real test awaits us all. Will the government deliver and turn ink on paper into reality?  
Hakim Almasmari  
 Publisher & Editor in Chief   
  Email the Editor
Advanced Search
HOME EDITORIAL LOCAL INTERVIEW REPORT POLITICS BUSINESS HEALTH YEMEN IN THE NEWS MIDDLE EAST INTERNATIONAL ARCHIVE
LATEST UPDATES Press Release: GAZA STRIP: ISRAEL MUST STOP BOMBING TRAPPED CIVILIANS :: President Hadi advocates unity in Yemen :: Al Qaeda wants to cut off officials’ hands :: Yemen’s economic reforms make Yemenis angry :: The United States calls on its nationals to leave Yemen :: Iran wants its diplomat released now :: More Support to Yemeni Patients and Health Sector; GSK Launches Access to Medicine Program :: Yemen and Saudi Arabia’s prisoners’ agreement :: Traveling for peace, a Yemeni turns globe trotter :: Top Salafi leader in Yemen calls on Al Qaeda to give allegiance to ISIL caliphate ::
BREAKING NEWS
z
YEMEN IN THE NEWS
Last updated: 09:10:30 PM GMT(+03) Tuesday, 12, February, 2013
 
 

Yemen Analysis: On Turkey Fallout and Advances of Iran

 
*
 

For Yemen Post
The present situation in Yemen can be best described as "The Emperor has new Clothes and "the Rape of Yemen" and UN providing the cover.

Possible Turkey fallout and Iran advances are not necessarily related.

The most important point for understanding is: The Timing

26th February 2013 is the final round of negotiations with Iran over it's enrichment programme with the West, i.e. UN Security council members + 2 and Iran.

Both parties are in strong position.

It is believed that a negotiated settlement can be reached.

In ancient times, Yemen and Iran teamed up in what is known in history as "Yemeni – Arabo – Iranian Civilization" for exploring of the Indian Ocean. One such example is example is the Sultanate of Kilwa, off Tanzanian coast, Lamu, off Kenyan coast is another, another are the "Navayats of Bathkal, off Indian coast, who are of Hadhrami Iranin stock.

It is in the best interest of Yemen to adopt a pragmatic attitude, and formulate a careful - pragmatic policy - towards Iran. Times may change and Iran may become an important trading or investment partner again.

The questions which are central for understanding the present situation are

Safe passage via Bab Al Mandab, which Yemen overlooks, but does not control, does not derive any financial benefits

More recently
Containing China
Check upon Iran
and secure (grab) oil + gas resources which are believed in the Gulf of Aden


In 18 century Great Britain become the dominant power in the Indian Ocean and occupies Aden, and with other colonial power, namely France in Djibouti controls the access and passage of Bab Al Mandab.

In what was known as "North Yemen" prior 26th September, 1962, it was under rule of Yemen, under "Saudi sphere" of interest. The imam maintains are secret agreement with Israel from the very beginning of existence of Israeli state for securing the Red sea supply route.

With rise Nasser in Egypt and his support to 26th September, 1962 revolution, Israel directly (militarily) intervenes in the subsequent Yemen civil war.

A secret alliance was forced where by Saudi Arabia provided the funds, Israel weapons and the British organization. This alliance remained in place, and who ever wanted to remain in power in North Yemen had to comply.

This alliance also has much to do with understanding of present events in Yemen.

Reference: Dana Adam Smith: Yemen – the Unknown War (the author is American- Jewish journalist and provides the best account of the civil war in Yemen

The War that Never Was, Memoirs of a British Intelligence officer.


With the departure of British from Aden, we enter the era of Cold war.

The Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen comes into existence with backing of Soviet Union. The PDRY was established as "carrier of social revolution" on the Arabian Peninsula, having its parallel in the north of the Arabian peninsula, in Syria.
The Soviet Union maintains a military base in Socotra, has Somalia in it`s sphere of interest, (which practical controls the entrance into the Red sea), Ethiopia, and maintains another military base on Dahlak islands. It advocates a confederation between Ethiopia and South Yemen.

The first crack in the two super powers game for control of Bab Al Mandab and access to the Red sea was in 1986 when Hunt Oil begun exploring North Yemen`s oil reserves and Americans managed to send to Ali Nasser Mohammed large amount of weapons. In aftermath a civil war took place, Ali Nasser takes refugee in North Yemen.

Reference: Gerard de Villiers: "Coup d`Etat au Yemen" (in French) 1986.

With demise of Soviet Union, Yemen is "allowed" to unity, and Eritrea comes into existence, Somalia disintegrates. Israel – in a bilateral agreement with the new country - takes over the Soviet base on Dahlak islands.

However, not all Southerners were for unity, especially the "military wing" of the Socialist party. This came into open, when they requested social reforms which resulted in 1994 civil war, which essential was – the military takeover of the Southern part, and also its resources. USA takes over the Soviet base in Socotra.
What President Hadi is doing –he has been awarding those Southerners who in 1990 spoke out for unity. In this respect, he deserves credit.

Who controls Bab al Mandab today, i.e. access to the Red Sea as world most important supply route:

USA: 3 bases in Yemen, Hodeidah, Anad, and Socotra
Djibuti: French/ USA
Eritrea unilaterally Israel
+ militarization of strategic water way: Gulf of Aden

India with Israel maintains a military base in Oman.

Here is an excerpts from New York Times
"Babl Al-Mandab gained additional strategic importance as a result of the events of September 11, 2001. The US has developed significant military and intelligence centers in Djibuti and Somalia as part of its efforts to prevent attacks from Al-Qaeda I the Bab Al-Mandab region."

The original "secret alliance" (Saudi Arabia, Israel, the British) is upgraded into so called NATO Middle East, includes also Germans and French.

Most of the substantial oil and gas resources are located off shore, in the Gulf of Aden. They were originately found and located by former Soviet Union, but the information was withheld. It surfaced only few years ago.

It is believed that concession contracts are already divided, in which case Turkey with its soft policy and support comes as the "spoiler of the game" and need to be put out of the game. .

Another point which is very important and needs to be explored, is:
What provisions, concessions, assurances, guarantees were given by the former regime for a possible attack on Iran. It is believed they include granting of air and sea space.

Here is another point worth considering:

With the fall of Gadaffi in Libya, an UN sponsored team lead by Germans is exploring his large store of weaponry, many of North Korean and Iranian origin.
They apparently include missiles, chemical and nuclear weapons, possibly weapons of mass destruction, etc.

Gadaffi used to send them all over the world for variety of causes, and the German lead team has been exploring to whom they were send, where they were used. Apparently, there is a substantial lead to Yemen (Sadah war). .

In addition there is a bilateral agreement in place with the German government and Yemeni government to monitor the entire Yemeni coast and Horn of Africa for illegal weapons and drugs, etc. It is technical impossible during the Yemeni transitional period bring in weapons.

It seems unlikely that there is a full scale Iranian invasion in making.
But it is much more likely that it goes for an attempt of a much talked over coup.
The weaponry may be from the Gadaffi`s storage or former President`s storage.

WHAT YEMEN CAN DO
CCG is for now an acceptable road map

Here are some further suggestions:

President Hadi is the man of the houer; he should be further empowered by "peoples
power" to be able to make necessary balance with outside powers in the best interest of Yemeni people
Bring in the youth
Bring in young Yemeni professional individuals
Disturb or further dismantle the network of the old regime
Start authentic development movement in the fashion of Sana`a cleaning action"
Limit the role of UN
Propose demilitarization of Bab Al Mandab and Gulf of Aden as "zone of peace" , accessible to all

Work out a methodology, what is specific to Yemen and what challenges faces Yemen in the international arena

 

 

 

 


*
Source: THISDAY
 
 
MORE YEMEN IN THE NEWS
 
Yemen Analysis: On Turkey Fallout and Advances of Iran
Tanzanian man arrested in Yemen for drug trafficking: Could face death penalty
Yemen says 7 Germans kidnapped in the north
Yemen wants Saudis to block cash for separatists
Deadly protests rock Yemen's south
Yemeni president pledges reforms after violence in southern areas
Bomb kills Yemeni in southern clashes
Somali Pirates Release Yemeni Ship
Delays dog US$5.5bn pledged to help impoverished Yemen
10 face terror charges in Yemen
 
 
Comments
 
Leave a Comment
Comment will be published once it has been approved by our moderators.
Name:
Title:
Comment:

TERMS AND CONDITIONS
Yemen Post may edit comments for length and clarity but will not change the tone of the message. Comments will only be accepted if all fields (including name) are filled correctly and the message isn't abusive, defamatory or offensive. All comments sent may be forwarded for use in the Yemen Post newspaper.
Article Tools
Email this Article Email this article
Print Friendly Version Print
Email this Article Email the Editor
 
Most popular
 President Hadi advocates unity in Yemen
 Al Qaeda wants to cut off officials’ hands
 Yemen’s economic reforms make Yemenis angry
 The United States calls on its nationals to leave Yemen
 Iran wants its diplomat released now
 Press Release: GAZA STRIP: ISRAEL MUST STOP BOMBING TRAPPED CIVILIANS
 
Services
  Letters to the Editor
  Dear President
  Advertise
  Subscribe
  Submit Your Articles
  Classified
  Readers' Letters
 

 
Quick poll
Do you think President Hadi is building the base to rule Yemen for many years?

VOTE  OR SEE POLL RESULTS
 

   
   
   
© Yemen Post. All Rights Reserved 2007- 2014    

 Designed and developed by
  HyperLink