Unlike in Tunisia and Egypt where autocrats were quick to jump off ship, giving up to popular pressure, Yemen is still waiting for its happy ending after 9 interminable months of broken promises, massive demonstrations, endless negotiations, do-overs and failed international pressure.
For 9 months, protesters in Yemen have followed the revolutionary hand book to the letter. They marched, chanted, called for political mediations. They willingly refused to resort to violence although they were being shot at with live ammunitions by the regime. The political class did its bit as well, as it negotiated and even signed the third GCC proposal in spite of the immunity clause.
When that failed, it decided to follow into the footsteps of Libya by declaring its National Council for the Yemeni Revolution, hoping that a shadow government would cause the regime to fall apart.
At a loss, the Opposition eventually called for yet more marches and demonstrations across the country, banking that with enough men in the streets of Yemen, the international community would eventually exert real pressure on Saleh, forcing him to leave the presidential seat once and for all.
But if president Saleh who is now back in Yemen is truly as he claims to be committed to a peaceful resolution of the current crisis, what's stopping him from inking the GCC agreement?
For 9 months the regime has been playing a game of cat and mouth with the Youth Movement, the Opposition, the Tribes and its foreign political allies. For 9 months the regime has time and time again extended promises of peace with one hand while using the other to fire at his people.
Yemen's revolution has 2 faces.
The Official Version
From the very beginning of the uprising, president Saleh used his politician skills to outmaneuver his opponents, hoping that by buying out time he would be able to turn the tide in his favor.
When the Youth Movement was not yet politicized, Saleh truly started to panic. Back then, Ben Ali, the Tunisian president had just fled to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and President Mubarak has just announced his resignation. Face with millions of angry Yemenis but no one to negotiate with Saleh's bravado was disintegrated fast. Even his promise not to run again for presidency did nothing to calm the revolutionary spirit which had inhabited Yemen; all what the country wanted was for him and his family to pack up their bags and leave.
Then the political class came into the picture, ruining Yemen's best chances of a quick settlement.
President Saleh immediately called for negotiations, banking on his opponents' greed for power and money as well as their internal dissensions to slowly kill the revolution momentum.
For 9 months Saleh used this very tactic, slowly eroding the Opposition' strength, leading foreign allies to believe that he was still in charge and therefore that he was still worthy of their support.
Because if the autocrat lasted that long to the face of so much unpopularity; it is because the Saudi, the Americans and the Europeans allowed him to.
On 3 separate occasions, president Saleh agreed to sign the GCC proposal which if enacted would enounce the end of his presidency against legal immunity, but backed out at the last minute, invoking different excuses every time.
If it wasn't the lack of clarity of "mechanisms of the transfer of power" it was the timing or the legitimacy of the signatories, the list goes on…
And still, as Saleh decided to return to Yemen against his most powerful ally's wishes, the Saudis, he claims to have endowed Hadi, his vice –president with the necessary powers to negotiate and sign a transition of power. The same vice-president who was forbidden to access the presidential palace when Ali Abdullah Saleh was sent to the KSA to recover from his injuries; the same man who was treated with contempt by Ahmed Ali, the president's eldest son and chosen successor, as he forced him to run the affairs of the state from his home, clearly defining the new hierarchy.
As the government continues to claim that it wants to talk to the Opposition, it continuously accuses it of having ties with al-Qaeda or of plotting against the regime.
As it continues to claim that it is the Opposition which is stalling the negotiations, it is the latter which agreed to it and signed it several months ago.
Behind the Scenes
As the shrewd politician that he is, president Saleh has cleverly used his vice-president as a decoy, lengthening the negotiation process by adding a new element to the puzzle.
When Saleh was recovering in Riyadh, the Opposition lost precious time in the coming and going of ministers and officials transiting from Sana'a to Riyadh, seeking the president's approval on one point or another.
For 9 months the regime has been despite its claims using lethal force against protesters. But as it did it progressively unlike Bashar al-Assad in Syria or Colonel Gaddafi in Libya, no one seemed to mind. More preoccupied with other bloodsheds taking place in the region, foreign nations turned a blind eye, leaving Yemenis to their miserable fate.
Things have however taken a turn for the worse since Saleh made his surprise return. While rendering a defiant speech punctuated by promises of peace, the Republican Guards, under his son command were annihilating protesters in "Change Square" in the capital and in "Liberty Square" in Taiz.
Since both towns are the main centers of the revolution, the regime concentrated its efforts on destroying them.
As foreign minister al-Qirby was meeting up with foreign diplomats reassuring them of his undying wanting for change in Yemen, military convoy were arriving from the KSA to Sana'a.
As al-Qirby was accusing the Opposition of fomenting a plot against the regime having not accepted the result of the 2006 presidential elections, accusing the tribes and defected General Mohsen of staging last week massacre to better discredit president Saleh, government troops were swooping on the revolutionaries, using snipers and tanks to back their advances.
The villages of Arhab and Naham have been bombed for several consecutive months for they pledged to defend the entrance to Sana'a, preventing the regime form getting yet more troops inside the capital. Saleh is now accusing them of being al-Qaeda militants.
Yet only a year ago they were tribes loyal to the government, with no trace of terror elements within the region.
As to prove that without Saleh nothing in Yemen could ever go right, the government has staged for months now an electricity blackout, only restoring power when officials are in town. The same thing could be said of the cooking gas penury and the sudden increase in petrol prices at the pump.
The Theory
A pattern seems to have emerged over the past few weeks. Since president Saleh first associated the Opposition with the terror group al-Qaeda, the theme has been taken on by the regime's officials, drummed into every speeches, every TV appearances, every statements made.
Even Yemen's Foreign Minister could not help himself but mentioned the Opposition's ties with terrorism in his address to the United Nations General Assembly.
President Saleh is looking very much like a man on a mission to demonize his opponents, leading the international community to believe that there are terrorist elements within the revolutionary movement and that therefore they need to be crushed.
One could assume that the regime is trying to use al-Qaeda as an excuse to wipe out the revolution, murdering all those who dared defied the Saleh's clan. Maybe as President Bush did for Iraq, Saleh will declare war against terrorism, slaughtering his nation to remain in power, armed with the best excuse of all…Terror.
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