When asking who the successor of President Ali Abdullah Saleh might be, a number of Yemenis are concerned that the future of Yemen could be in danger following his departure from the political scene.
Saleh, who is constitutionally mandated to step down in November 2013, has ruled Yemen for the past 31 years, a task he invariably likens to “dancing on the heads of snakes.” He has survived in a country where presidents are destined to die. Of Saleh’s four predecessors, none lasted more than seven years in power; Yemen’s previous two presidents were both assassinated within a nine-month span.
President Saleh has put Yemen’s unity, peace and stability at the top of his main concern. “Security and stability are the main objectives because they are in the interest of the people and my objectives are for a stable Yemen,” he said in an interview.
Observers believe Yemenis are simply aware of the President Saleh regime with unpleasant situation record and government’s corruption, something they say Yemenis are just turning a blind eye to, especially with the many crises which include the Houthis and the Southern Mobility.
Sadly, failed economic situations and government corruption have led to miserable growth in per capita income, falling rates of food production, periodic food shortage, institutionalized corruption, and intermittent war. Some even believe that without Saleh spreading corruption among tribal leaders, he would have been assassinated like previous presidents. “The vital problem in our country is corruption. The top people in the Yemen’s government line their pockets through political influences,” said 37-year-old Naeem Gasim Anam.
Regional expert in Yemen’s affairs who spoke in anonymity said that once going to power is out-of-the-way by legitimate means, the ground in Yemen is fertile for rebellions and assassinations. “The more access to power is denied, the more people will look for alternatives and be willing to challenge power outside the system,” he added.
“In the Middle East, rulers get attached to the chair of power, and as time passes, the addiction gets stronger and no one could end this combination,” professors of jurisprudence at the faculty of law at Sana’a University Mrtada Bin Zaid Al-Muhdhwari said. He added, “The relation between the ruler and the chair of power is similar to a long successful marriage between the he-devil and she-devil,” he said.
However, after so long in the top seat, one would think Saleh’s hunger for power would be full. He has ruled Yemen for 31 years, not to mention his years as a high-ranking military officer. Thus he can make history by resigning the presidency and supervising free and fair elections to select a successor.
Some say Saleh, the founder of Yemen’s unity and unfinished democracy, can set an example in the region that democracy is possible, adding that he could possibly get credit for being the founder of democracy in the Middle East. Although it has been widely assumed that a successor will come from within the army’s ranks or certainly with its strong backing, other possibilities have also been mentioned.
Observers said that the challenges to President Saleh’s goals of empowering his son come mainly from the son of his main ally, late Abdullah Al-Ahmer’s son. Hameed Abdullah Al-Ahmer, a businessman in his 40s, expected to lead the Islah Party in the future, surprised Yemenis by appearing on Al-Jazeera channel to describe president Saleh as having overstayed his time and calling on him to leave office and not try to enthrone his son.
More than once during the past year, President Saleh found himself denying specific intentions for the succession of his son Ahmad. His denials, however, are less than categorical. “I am not grooming my son to succeed me,” he stated in an interview
There have been reports that the possible candidacy of the American university-educated Ahmad has been opposed by the president’s strongest ally, Ali Muhsin Al-Ahmar, commander of an armored division and someone who naturally sees himself as a more fitting candidate.
The country’s situation can affect succession analysts say, adding that once the country goes into instability or possibly war, President Saleh might well wish to appoint a strong crisis-management successor. A candidate with a more peace-making path and a civilian agenda. President Saleh and Hameed Al-Ahmer are not considered rivals for the presidency but Hameed has signaled that he does not favor a direct succession of President Saleh’s son (Ahmed) to the presidency.
Further, if problems continue in Yemen, most likely a prominent and strong military figure will take control of the country without delay, odds here point at Ahmed, President Saleh’s son.
In Syria, President Hafiz Al-Asad, who held an exceedingly firm grip on power for three decades, succeeded in securing the succession for his son Bashshar, before succumbing to a heart attack at the age of sixty-nine.